Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240201 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  25.3  23.5  23.6  20.4  21.3  27.8  41.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  64.0  64.0  51.0  20.8  10.4   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  94.8  69.4  44.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -1.0  33.0  22.0 -15.0   4.0  16.0  26.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  63.0  68.0  64.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.5%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       17.8%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        8.3%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        7.9%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        7.9%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       17.6%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.3%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        6.2%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        3.3%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.52

 SH072024 240201 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  25.3  23.5  23.6  20.4  21.3  27.8  41.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  63.0  68.0  64.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%