Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    139.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  25.1  19.9  19.4  17.8  17.4  27.3  34.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  51.0  51.0  26.0  15.6   5.2   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 105.7  79.3  54.3  36.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  30.0  -6.0 -29.0  30.0  -6.0  52.0  85.0  U  N  U VU  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  70.0  63.0  62.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0 -10.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        3.6%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.1%       22.5%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       11.8%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       11.8%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       11.8%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       20.5%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        6.3%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 SH072024 240202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    139.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  25.1  19.9  19.4  17.8  17.4  27.3  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  70.0  63.0  62.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0 -10.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%