Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240202 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  20.8  17.5  17.5  25.1  24.6  38.7  47.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.4   7.8   5.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 113.6 103.5  81.5  58.8  39.1  34.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0   1.0 -20.0   0.0  -4.0  32.0  62.0  84.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  57.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  54.0  61.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0 -32.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%       10.2%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        5.1%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.5%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        7.5%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 SH072024 240202 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  20.8  17.5  17.5  25.1  24.6  38.7  47.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  57.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  54.0  61.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0 -32.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%