Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240202 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.3  24.9  26.3  26.3  32.3  38.0  52.9  N  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.1  19.3  15.4  11.6   3.9   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 122.3 111.5 103.5  87.7  67.9  49.1  37.7  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  22.0  30.0  20.0   5.0  14.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  48.0  54.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -7.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 SH072024 240202 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.3  24.9  26.3  26.3  32.3  38.0  52.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  48.0  54.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -7.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%