Rapid Intensification Guidance SH072024 240202 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 138.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 21.6 24.6 26.5 25.5 40.6 51.9 54.6 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 103.0 75.4 70.5 72.9 F F F N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 21.0 23.0 5.0 14.0 52.0 66.0 40.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 63.0 66.0 63.0 63.0 53.0 55.0 45.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -7.0 -37.0 -9.0 8.0 N N N N F VF F U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 9.7% 5.4% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 4.0% 2.2% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 3.1% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.1% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 8.3% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.4% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 1.2% 1.9% 65kt / 72h 3.7% 1.0% 2.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.08 SH072024 240202 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 138.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 21.6 24.6 26.5 25.5 40.6 51.9 54.6 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 63.0 66.0 63.0 63.0 53.0 55.0 45.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -7.0 -37.0 -9.0 8.0 N N N N U VU U F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%