Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  24.5  27.6  25.4  26.8  38.7  53.3  45.3  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5  97.7  85.0  72.9  50.0  39.0  39.0  44.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  27.0   5.0  -7.0  32.0  85.0  44.0  38.0  N  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -7.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.54

 SH072024 240203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.