Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    138.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  25.9  21.9  24.4  38.6  52.3  64.4  63.4  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.0  88.6  75.5  63.7  47.7  40.7  39.6  41.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   8.0   2.0  13.0  43.0  66.0  57.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  57.0  61.0  53.0  53.0  44.0  34.0  N  N  U  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0 -48.0  -4.0  -3.0  15.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.56

 SH072024 240203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    138.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.