Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082024 240125 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.80 59.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.8 21.0 29.0 30.3 40.1 42.1 56.3 61.0 F N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.6 88.0 84.4 79.3 73.0 47.7 28.4 22.3 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 41.0 40.0 87.0 78.0 57.0 84.0 59.0 N N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 56.0 50.0 47.0 43.0 45.0 41.0 35.0 N U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -12.0 -22.0 -54.0 -56.0 -60.0 7.0 N N F VF VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.5% 5.7% 7.1% 25kt / 24h 5.2% 10.7% 7.9% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 4.6% 3.8% 35kt / 24h 2.8% 4.4% 3.6% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 4.4% 2.6% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 9.1% 4.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.2% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 SH082024 240125 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.80 59.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.