Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082024 240125 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.60     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  34.0  36.7  40.3  42.5  50.7  55.8  65.5  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  74.3  69.6  65.0  51.7  24.7  15.7  14.1  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  47.0  83.0  74.0  37.0  71.0  73.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  41.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0 -24.0 -36.0 -59.0 -51.0 -22.0  13.0  N  F VF VF VF VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.38

 SH082024 240125 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.60     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.