Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082024 240125 18UTC Storm Located at : -25.00 60.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.2 41.5 42.9 49.0 41.9 54.2 61.4 69.6 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.7 66.5 62.2 56.7 31.6 20.8 15.7 14.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 77.0 83.0 52.0 50.0 63.0 94.0 85.0 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 45.0 37.0 31.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -23.0 -26.0 -59.0 -57.0 -28.0 -14.0 15.0 N VF VF VF VF VF VF U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.92 SH082024 240125 18UTC Storm Located at : -25.00 60.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.