Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082024 240126 00UTC Storm Located at : -25.40 61.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.8 47.0 52.0 45.1 49.4 51.7 51.7 51.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.3 74.6 71.5 63.0 35.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 N U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 77.0 58.0 16.0 81.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 N N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 48.0 50.0 49.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -16.0 -64.0 -36.0 -38.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.10 SH082024 240126 00UTC Storm Located at : -25.40 61.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.