Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082024 240126 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.00     61.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.0  47.5  41.9  43.4  53.9  53.2  53.2  53.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  68.6  61.7  49.8  28.4  20.1  20.1  20.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  58.0  24.0  19.0  71.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  46.0  47.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0 -59.0 -44.0 -52.0 -15.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.48

 SH082024 240126 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.00     61.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.