Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082024 240126 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.80 62.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.3 35.0 41.0 41.0 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.4 59.2 47.7 34.2 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 31.0 16.0 61.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 N N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 53.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -60.0 -29.0 -42.0 -33.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.52 SH082024 240126 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.80 62.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.