Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082024 240127 00UTC Storm Located at : -27.50 60.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 43.0 47.6 46.1 61.7 72.4 114.3 114.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.2 41.6 32.7 27.8 22.7 19.2 22.2 22.2 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 60.0 57.0 57.0 88.0 46.0 39.0 39.0 N N N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 51.0 44.0 29.0 29.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -32.0 -39.0 -30.0 -31.0 -27.0 -11.0 133.0 133.0 VF VF VF VF VF F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.06 SH082024 240127 00UTC Storm Located at : -27.50 60.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.