Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082024 240127 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -29.70     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.4  47.2  51.4  59.3  62.9  76.7  77.1  81.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  42.8  40.7  39.1  39.6  44.6  52.6  59.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  84.0  79.0  73.0  70.0  70.0   6.0 -25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  42.0  31.0  35.0  37.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -32.0 -26.0 -11.0  -7.0  36.0  22.0   3.0  12.0 VF VF  F  F VU VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.10

 SH082024 240127 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -29.70     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.