Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092024 240131 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     66.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  34.6  33.5  26.9  36.1  30.6  45.0  51.6  U  U  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  49.0  43.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  28.0   2.0  19.0  55.0  42.0  58.0  98.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -6.0 -11.0 -23.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        7.4%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        6.5%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        2.5%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        2.7%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 SH092024 240131 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     66.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  34.6  33.5  26.9  36.1  30.6  45.0  51.6  F  F  F  N  F  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -6.0 -11.0 -23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%