Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092024 240131 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.90 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.7 34.8 36.4 40.6 35.9 48.1 49.0 59.6 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 49.0 41.0 30.0 12.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 -18.0 -12.0 2.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 89.0 VU U U U N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 54.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 48.0 40.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -7.0 -13.0 N N N N F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.8% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 SH092024 240131 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.90 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.7 34.8 36.4 40.6 35.9 48.1 49.0 59.6 F F F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 54.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 48.0 40.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -7.0 -13.0 N N N N U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%