Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092024 240202 06UTC Storm Located at : -20.80 68.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 51.7 54.7 58.0 72.8 76.2 74.1 84.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 22.0 10.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 115.7 113.6 87.7 46.6 23.9 16.5 F F N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 85.0 77.0 83.0 124.0 144.0 125.0 111.0 N F N N F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 57.0 55.0 63.0 64.0 57.0 57.0 U U U U N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -6.0 -11.0 -15.0 -24.0 -98.0 -94.0 21.0 N F F VF VF VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 SH092024 240202 06UTC Storm Located at : -20.80 68.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 51.7 54.7 58.0 72.8 76.2 74.1 84.1 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 57.0 55.0 63.0 64.0 57.0 57.0 F F F F N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -6.0 -11.0 -15.0 -24.0 -98.0 -94.0 21.0 N U U VU VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.4% 0.4% 4.9%