Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102024 240205 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    195.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  31.6  46.1  44.0  39.9  37.2  33.7  32.8  N  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  35.0  39.0  38.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0 101.0 111.0  79.0  48.0  35.0  12.0  33.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -12.0 -17.0 -13.0 -10.0  -9.0 -11.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.6%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.5%       19.6%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        7.7%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        7.4%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.0%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       13.6%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        4.4%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        8.0%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.36

 SH102024 240205 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    195.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  31.6  46.1  44.0  39.9  37.2  33.7  32.8  N  N VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -12.0 -17.0 -13.0 -10.0  -9.0 -11.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%