Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102024 240205 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    196.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  41.5  43.3  43.9  38.2  30.3  28.7  37.2  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  37.0  51.0  46.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0  88.0  69.0  82.0  54.0  36.0  19.0  49.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -11.0 -20.0 -22.0 -12.0  -6.0  -7.0  -8.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       15.4%       11.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.7%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.5%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        5.1%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       12.4%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        5.5%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.6%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%       10.5%        6.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.36

 SH102024 240205 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    196.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  41.5  43.3  43.9  38.2  30.3  28.7  37.2  N VF VF VF  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -11.0 -20.0 -22.0 -12.0  -6.0  -7.0  -8.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.1%        0.0%        1.1%