Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102024 240206 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    198.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  36.9  39.3  37.8  27.5  22.8  31.5  38.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  32.0  29.0  31.0  51.0  33.0  32.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   126.0  97.0  89.0  76.0  63.0  14.0  42.0  37.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -13.0 -10.0 -11.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.2%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       16.9%       13.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.6%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        6.6%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.2%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       16.1%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        9.4%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%       10.0%        6.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 SH102024 240206 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    198.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  36.9  39.3  37.8  27.5  22.8  31.5  38.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -13.0 -10.0 -11.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%