Rapid Intensification Guidance SH102024 240206 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 200.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.8 31.5 28.6 23.2 22.0 22.3 25.1 47.3 U U N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 36.0 41.0 57.0 46.0 45.0 57.0 28.0 N U N N N N N U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 64.0 50.0 75.0 80.0 57.0 48.0 69.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 77.0 82.0 78.0 80.0 81.0 76.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 4.0 4.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.3% 3.5% 4.9% 25kt / 24h 18.3% 27.9% 23.1% 30kt / 24h 9.9% 13.4% 11.7% 35kt / 24h 7.5% 13.4% 10.4% 40kt / 24h 2.5% 13.4% 7.9% 45kt / 36h 14.5% 27.2% 20.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.1% 5.1% 55kt / 48h 13.8% 15.8% 14.8% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 8.8% 6.4% 65kt / 72h 7.0% 13.1% 10.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.08 SH102024 240206 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 200.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.8 31.5 28.6 23.2 22.0 22.3 25.1 47.3 F N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 77.0 82.0 78.0 80.0 81.0 76.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 4.0 4.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%