Rapid Intensification Guidance SH102024 240206 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 203.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.9 37.3 31.4 27.1 21.9 32.4 38.1 59.9 U U U N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 51.0 53.0 35.0 30.0 38.0 31.0 9.0 U N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 98.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 75.0 89.0 75.0 71.0 55.0 48.0 16.0 N N F N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 77.0 71.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 73.0 N F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 13.0 -1.0 4.0 N F N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.5% 6.1% 7.8% 25kt / 24h 26.9% 37.8% 32.4% 30kt / 24h 15.0% 24.5% 19.7% 35kt / 24h 15.0% 24.5% 19.7% 40kt / 24h 2.3% 22.3% 12.3% 45kt / 36h 14.2% 34.9% 24.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 15.8% 7.9% 55kt / 48h 9.3% 16.8% 13.0% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 7.4% 4.2% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 3.7% 1.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.80 SH102024 240206 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 203.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.9 37.3 31.4 27.1 21.9 32.4 38.1 59.9 F F N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 77.0 71.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 73.0 N U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 13.0 -1.0 4.0 N U N N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%