Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102024 240206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    204.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  32.7  28.4  24.3  22.6  32.0  46.8  37.8  U  U  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  57.0  55.0  45.0  21.0  61.0  38.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  90.0  70.0  56.0  46.0  32.0  56.0   2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0 -11.0 -12.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       18.0%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        8.2%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        7.8%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.6%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       14.5%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        9.0%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        5.1%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 SH102024 240206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    204.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  32.7  28.4  24.3  22.6  32.0  46.8  37.8  F  F  N  N  N  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0 -11.0 -12.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%