Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102024 240207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20    206.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.5  29.0  29.3  42.0  52.9  55.3  55.6  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  32.0  25.0  25.0  31.0  17.0  19.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 117.3 106.5  81.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  46.0  11.0  19.0  67.0  83.0  80.0  70.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -4.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.9%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 SH102024 240207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20    206.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.5  29.0  29.3  42.0  52.9  55.3  55.6  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -4.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%