Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102024 240207 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70    207.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.2  23.8  26.4  48.8  40.7  62.4  62.2  U  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  28.0  26.0  27.0  35.0  22.0  12.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 107.4  69.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  62.0  52.0  43.0  20.0  68.0  17.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0  11.0   5.0   8.0   1.0  -7.0 -10.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        9.4%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.6%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 SH102024 240207 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70    207.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.2  23.8  26.4  48.8  40.7  62.4  62.2  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0  11.0   5.0   8.0   1.0  -7.0 -10.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%