Rapid Intensification Guidance SH102024 240207 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.30 208.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 41.3 45.2 48.5 52.6 48.1 54.0 42.3 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 17.0 18.0 23.0 16.0 19.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1 106.5 87.7 68.0 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 48.0 44.0 45.0 95.0 87.0 69.0 39.0 N N N N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 70.0 63.0 60.0 58.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -5.0 -13.0 -17.0 F N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.6% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.78 SH102024 240207 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.30 208.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 41.3 45.2 48.5 52.6 48.1 54.0 42.3 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 70.0 63.0 60.0 58.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -5.0 -13.0 -17.0 U N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%