Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    162.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  18.0  19.8  19.8  22.7  25.3  30.7  37.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  63.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  34.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  44.0  50.0  76.0  56.0  72.0  68.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  66.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%       13.8%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       32.8%       59.0%       45.9%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       40.8%       29.6%
 35kt / 24h       12.5%       40.8%       26.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       40.6%       23.3%
 45kt / 36h       26.6%       65.3%       45.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       44.9%       22.4%
 55kt / 48h       33.8%       39.1%       36.5%
 70kt / 48h       20.8%       31.1%       25.9%
 65kt / 72h       31.2%       33.3%       32.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 SH122024 240208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    162.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  18.0  19.8  19.8  22.7  25.3  30.7  37.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  66.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%