Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    163.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  26.4  25.0  25.5  19.6  35.7  41.7  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  46.0  32.0  30.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  43.0  66.0  78.0  55.0  44.0  42.0  12.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        6.4%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       36.2%       27.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       19.5%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        7.2%       19.2%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       19.2%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h       17.5%       43.0%       30.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.7%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%       18.5%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%       10.9%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%       10.0%        7.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 SH122024 240208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    163.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  26.4  25.0  25.5  19.6  35.7  41.7  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%