Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    164.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  25.6  25.4  24.1  26.6  30.2  33.6  37.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  45.0  31.0  27.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0 118.0  84.0  57.0  57.0  76.0  47.0  49.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   4.0  -6.0   5.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        2.7%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       22.9%       17.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       10.1%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        9.7%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        9.7%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       20.2%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        9.7%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        4.4%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%        8.3%        8.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 SH122024 240208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    164.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  25.6  25.4  24.1  26.6  30.2  33.6  37.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   4.0  -6.0   5.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%