Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    165.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  20.7  22.3  33.3  37.2  37.0  38.8  37.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  61.0  51.0  17.0  26.0  26.0  33.0  45.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0  64.0  37.0  45.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  47.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -6.0  10.0   7.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  F  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        9.6%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        5.0%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.7%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        2.7%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 SH122024 240209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    165.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  20.7  22.3  33.3  37.2  37.0  38.8  37.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -6.0  10.0   7.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  U  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%