Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90    165.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  23.2  29.8  37.1  36.1  42.9  35.2  38.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  57.0  42.0  33.0  25.0  32.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  27.0  53.0  54.0  26.0  33.0  51.0  23.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  51.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   4.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       11.8%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.4%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.9%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        7.2%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        3.0%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 SH122024 240209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90    165.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  23.2  29.8  37.1  36.1  42.9  35.2  38.0  N  N  N  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  51.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   4.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%