Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    166.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.4  20.2  20.6  26.2  28.3  28.1  31.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  14.0  29.0  24.0  45.0  45.0  40.0  30.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  81.0  75.0  71.0  90.0  54.0  46.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       23.6%       16.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%       11.2%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       10.5%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.5%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       22.4%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       13.2%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        6.1%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h       21.7%       14.4%       18.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 SH122024 240209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    166.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.4  20.2  20.6  26.2  28.3  28.1  31.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%