Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240209 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    167.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  37.7  32.3  30.6  32.5  33.4  28.3  26.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  30.0  25.0  27.0  45.0  42.0  41.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  64.0  59.0  49.0  61.0  84.0  58.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       12.0%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.6%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       11.5%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        5.8%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%        7.4%        6.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 SH122024 240209 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    167.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  37.7  32.3  30.6  32.5  33.4  28.3  26.7  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%