Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  20.3  22.6  25.5  29.0  29.6  28.1  25.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  34.0  34.0  39.0  42.0  36.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  51.0  66.0  68.0  39.0  31.0  16.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       23.5%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%       11.3%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       10.6%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.3%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       21.8%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.8%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%       11.2%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        5.5%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.1%       12.3%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 SH122024 240210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  20.3  22.6  25.5  29.0  29.6  28.1  25.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%