Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    170.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.7  24.0  27.4  29.6  31.8  25.1  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  41.0  43.0  40.0   9.0  30.0  30.0  29.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  54.0  72.0  45.0  25.0  27.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.9%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        5.4%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.9%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        5.2%        5.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 SH122024 240210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    170.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.7  24.0  27.4  29.6  31.8  25.1  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%