Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    171.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.8  36.2  34.5  36.1  24.1  26.2  29.3  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  87.0  50.0  56.0  66.0  51.0  35.0  46.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%        5.8%        6.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 SH122024 240210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    171.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.8  36.2  34.5  36.1  24.1  26.2  29.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%