Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240210 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40    172.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  37.9  41.6  40.6  35.0  23.2  28.5  21.1  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  47.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  39.0  37.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  53.0  53.0  42.0  71.0  21.0  28.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.7%        6.0%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 SH122024 240210 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40    172.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  37.9  41.6  40.6  35.0  23.2  28.5  21.1  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%