Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122024 240211 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50    175.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  36.6  38.4  32.6  22.7  21.8  21.3  24.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  41.0  42.0  49.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  10.0  19.0   8.0  33.0  29.0  24.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  69.0  67.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%        3.6%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 SH122024 240211 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50    175.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  36.6  38.4  32.6  22.7  21.8  21.3  24.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  69.0  67.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%