Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132024 240216 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.20 66.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 25.0 30.3 32.3 43.5 57.0 74.0 79.3 F N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 69.0 71.0 58.0 40.0 40.0 21.0 0.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 87.9 48.6 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 85.0 97.0 65.0 103.0 93.0 56.0 24.0 N F F N F F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 71.0 70.0 64.0 67.0 62.0 62.0 50.0 F N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -2.0 1.0 -1.0 -4.0 -14.0 39.0 45.0 N N N N F VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 39.5% 26.9% 33.2% 25kt / 24h 54.9% 59.1% 57.0% 30kt / 24h 40.5% 50.7% 45.6% 35kt / 24h 36.7% 50.7% 43.7% 40kt / 24h 22.9% 49.4% 36.2% 45kt / 36h 26.2% 24.9% 25.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 9.6% 4.8% 55kt / 48h 4.7% 6.8% 5.8% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 SH132024 240216 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.20 66.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 25.0 30.3 32.3 43.5 57.0 74.0 79.3 U N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 71.0 70.0 64.0 67.0 62.0 62.0 50.0 U N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -2.0 1.0 -1.0 -4.0 -14.0 39.0 45.0 N N N N U VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%