Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132024 240218 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.50 73.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 85.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.7 39.4 48.8 57.9 64.7 72.0 69.5 70.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 45.0 38.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 42.3 37.9 0.0 -25.3 -37.4 -41.6 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 124.0 112.0 71.0 78.0 46.0 21.0 -19.0 22.0 F F N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 60.0 53.0 53.0 49.0 35.0 22.0 14.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 0.0 -13.0 10.0 -4.0 10.0 45.0 19.0 U N VF U F U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 34.4% 5.8% 20.1% 25kt / 24h 8.6% 4.1% 6.3% 30kt / 24h 4.7% 1.8% 3.2% 35kt / 24h 4.1% 1.8% 3.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.64 SH132024 240218 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.50 73.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.7 39.4 48.8 57.9 64.7 72.0 69.5 70.0 VF F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 60.0 53.0 53.0 49.0 35.0 22.0 14.0 N N F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 0.0 -13.0 10.0 -4.0 10.0 45.0 19.0 F N VU F U F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 30.4% 15.2%