Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132024 240218 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 76.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 80.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.2 44.4 52.3 62.4 64.9 65.0 65.9 55.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 33.0 18.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.0 35.1 30.7 2.7 -14.6 -29.3 -39.2 -39.2 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 119.0 104.0 102.0 145.0 73.0 7.0 19.0 32.0 F F F VF N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 58.0 53.0 57.0 38.0 23.0 12.0 12.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 11.0 8.0 7.0 3.0 35.0 29.0 45.0 VU U U N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 20.9% 2.3% 11.6% 25kt / 24h 2.1% 1.0% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.98 SH132024 240218 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 76.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.2 44.4 52.3 62.4 64.9 65.0 65.9 55.7 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 58.0 53.0 57.0 38.0 23.0 12.0 12.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 11.0 8.0 7.0 3.0 35.0 29.0 45.0 VF F F N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 11.5% 50.4% 30.9%