Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132024 240218 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.60     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.5  61.6  70.7  74.0  73.3  79.0  61.4  73.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.6   1.1  -6.4 -19.5 -37.6 -46.6 -44.6 -40.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 124.0  68.0  54.0  -7.0  25.0  18.0  19.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  49.0  39.0  24.0  13.0  12.0  13.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0 -11.0 -16.0  34.0  27.0  52.0  40.0  48.0  N  F VF VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 SH132024 240218 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.60     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.