Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132024 240219 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.10     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.7  77.5  78.4  78.7  70.9  75.8  80.6  81.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         17.7  10.0  -4.5 -17.2 -30.9 -31.6 -22.6 -44.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0  77.0  40.0  14.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0 -17.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  46.0  38.0  31.0  20.0  13.0  14.0  17.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -10.0 -18.0  41.0  97.0  56.0  48.0  36.0 VF  F VF VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.64

 SH132024 240219 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.10     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.