Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132024 240219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.20     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        77.9  91.0  83.9  92.7 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.2   8.2  -3.2 -10.0 -20.4 -20.4 -20.4 -20.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  48.0  34.0   5.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  34.0  25.0  18.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  18.0  65.0  68.0  94.0  94.0  94.0  94.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.46

 SH132024 240219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.20     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.