Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132024 240219 18UTC Storm Located at : -29.80 92.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 91.9 102.9 99.1 101.6 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 27.4 17.1 12.8 11.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 -23.0 -18.0 -13.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 N VU U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 30.0 27.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 104.0 188.0 208.0 138.0 176.0 176.0 176.0 176.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.82 SH132024 240219 18UTC Storm Located at : -29.80 92.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.