Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142024 240220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  24.6  18.9  17.0  33.6  21.9  30.9  23.8  N  N  N  F  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  23.0  77.0  59.0  37.0  56.0  32.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -39.0 -57.0 -12.0   2.0  14.0  56.0   0.0  36.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  18.0   3.0  12.0   1.0  N  N  N  N VU  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%       10.9%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.5%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       13.1%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        6.8%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        3.3%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       11.0%       10.3%       10.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.42

 SH142024 240220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  24.6  18.9  17.0  33.6  21.9  30.9  23.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  18.0   3.0  12.0   1.0  N  N  N  N VF  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%