Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142024 240225 00UTC Storm Located at : -26.00 115.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.40 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.4 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 49.1 49.1 49.1 49.1 49.1 49.1 49.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 VF F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.78 SH142024 240225 00UTC Storm Located at : -26.00 115.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.