Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152024 240215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    195.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  32.1  42.7  53.4  50.4  78.4  78.4  78.4  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  21.0  18.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 120.1 109.4  75.8  55.7  55.7  55.7  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  98.0  88.0  51.0  64.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -29.0 -29.0 -40.0  -6.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  F VF VF VF  F  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.1%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        9.0%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.1%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 SH152024 240215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    195.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  32.1  42.7  53.4  50.4  78.4  78.4  78.4  N  N VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -29.0 -29.0 -40.0  -6.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U VU VU VU  U  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        0.0%        4.6%