Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152024 240216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00    202.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        66.1  71.2  63.2  75.8  63.8  70.1  86.3  70.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.1  69.2  58.8  52.8  45.0  37.7  29.6  25.1  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  91.0  83.0  85.0  77.0  75.0  89.0  83.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  69.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -27.0 -39.0 -16.0   8.0   1.0  16.0  38.0  N VF VF VF  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.22

 SH152024 240216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00    202.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.